Rapeseed Maintains High Premium, Corn - Stable Forecast: Market Outlook for Early Summer

Rapeseed holds high premium, corn — stable forecast: what the market sees at the start of summer - AgroPost

The Ukrainian agrarian market is entering a period when prices increasingly depend on new harvest arrivals and external buyers’ activity. The most attention is currently on rapeseed: on Euronext, prices remain high, and the premium over wheat stays unusually wide.

At the same time, the grain segment received updated benchmarks from USDA. For Ukrainian corn, the June forecast remains unchanged, providing the market with a relatively stable basis for planning the new season.

Rapeseed: high prices persist, but growth potential narrows

The August rapeseed futures on Euronext have recently mostly traded within the range of 520–530 EUR/t. This occurs despite corrective sentiments in related oilseed and grain markets.

According to ASAP Agri, the ratio of rapeseed to wheat prices on Euronext in June rose to 2.6. For comparison, a historically normal benchmark is around 2.0. Over the past year, this indicator has mostly stayed within 2.3–2.6.

This premium is supported by two key factors. Wheat remains under pressure from sufficient global supply, while the rapeseed complex benefits from biofuel demand in the EU.

Rapeseed oil remains a vital raw material for biodiesel production in the European Union. An additional demand factor is the implementation of RED III and the gradual reduction of palm oil’s role in Europe’s biofuel balance.

Why July-August could change the market tone

Despite strong demand, the rapeseed market is approaching the harvest season at high price levels. According to analysts, the August contract on Euronext is currently 40–60 EUR/t higher than typical levels during this period over the past three years.

Historically, July and August often serve as cooling-off periods after spring-summer growth. The reason is simple: new harvests start entering the market, giving buyers more room for negotiations.

The technical picture also does not look unequivocally bullish. Several attempts to break above 530 EUR/t have failed, indicating strong resistance in this zone.

The baseline scenario, as outlined by analysts, suggests a possible correction of the August contract to 500–510 EUR/t. With favorable weather and a good harvest in the EU and Ukraine, the market could test levels of 480–490 EUR/t.

Ukrainian rapeseed: strong basis creates a window for sales

For Ukrainian sellers, the situation on the physical market remains favorable. The difference between Ukrainian rapeseed prices on CPT port basis and the August futures on Euronext is estimated at around -6 USD/t.

This basis level is strong for this season. However, after active new harvest arrivals, it usually weakens as domestic supply increases.

1. Current advantage for sellers: high premium of rapeseed over wheat and active demand from the EU.
2. Main risk: seasonal increase in new harvest supply in Ukraine and the EU.
3. Practical conclusion: partial sales fixing may be justified for farms wishing to hedge against July-August correction risks.

Corn: USDA leaves Ukraine forecast unchanged

The USDA’s June forecast estimates global corn production at 1,300.38 million tons in 2026/27 MY, which is 5 million tons higher than the May estimate.

World corn exports are forecast at 207.61 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous forecast. Ending stocks are raised to 281.22 million tons, an increase of 3.68 million tons compared to May.

For Ukraine, USDA did not revise key figures. Corn production in 2026/27 MY remains at 30 million tons, exports at 23 million tons, and ending stocks at 2.56 million tons.

The stability of the forecast indicates that the international balance currently does not provide the Ukrainian market with a new price impulse. Weather conditions, harvest pace, logistics, and importer activity closer to autumn remain more influential for corn prices.

What this means for the market: currently, rapeseed offers producers a more pronounced price window, but it may narrow with the start of mass new harvest arrivals. Conversely, corn remains within stable forecast ranges, so farmers should diversify strategies: for rapeseed — carefully hedge margins; for corn — monitor weather, logistics costs, and updates on the global balance.