Spring Planting Nearly Completed, New Wheat Harvest Prices Drop: Market Overview

Spring planting nearly completed, wheat prices for the new harvest are declining: what’s happening in the market - AgroPost

The Ukrainian planting campaign is approaching the finish line: according to the Ministry of Economy, as of June 8, spring grains and legumes have been sown on 5.882 million hectares, or 98% of the forecast.

The price situation is mixed. In Ukraine, prices for the new wheat harvest are decreasing due to expectations of increased supply before the harvest, while global grain indicators continued to rise in May.

Planting: the main area has already been formed

The projected area for spring grains and legumes is 6.003 million hectares. Approximately 2% of the planned areas remain unsown.

1. Spring wheat — 186.6 thousand hectares, 100% of forecast.
2. Barley — 713.6 thousand hectares, 95% of forecast.
3. Peas — 259.7 thousand hectares, 95% of forecast.
4. Oats — 137.5 thousand hectares, 100% of forecast.
5. Corn — 4.367 million hectares, 99% of forecast.
6. Buckwheat — 51.1 thousand hectares, 97% of forecast.
7. Millet — 37.6 thousand hectares, 96% of forecast.

Oilseed planting is also nearing completion. Sunflower has been sown on 4.861 million hectares, or 97% of the plan, and soybeans on 1.987 million hectares, also 97%.

New wheat harvest: local market under pressure

Prices for Ukraine’s new wheat harvest on DAP port terms continue to decline. According to brokers, indicative levels are around $219/ton for grade 2 wheat, $218/ton for grade 3, and $210/ton for grade 4.

At the end of the previous week, DAP port levels were estimated at $221/ton for grade 2, $220/ton for grade 3, and $212/ton for grade 4. This indicates that the market is gradually pricing in the upcoming harvest.

Some agricultural producers, according to brokers, are hesitant to sell transitional stocks at current prices. Meanwhile, no significant drivers for a rapid price recovery are currently identified.

Global context: FAO grain indices increased

The global picture differs from the local Ukrainian dynamics. The FAO Grain Price Index averaged 114.3 points in May, up 2.9 points or 2.6% from April, and 5.3 points or 4.9% higher than last year.

World wheat prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in May. The FAO cites expectations of lower yields in key exporting countries, notably in the US, where winter wheat crop conditions are among the worst in decades.

Higher fuel and fertilizer prices also impacted the grain market. Support for corn prices came from import demand, limited supply in Brazil and the US, and ethanol producers’ demand.

Key conclusions for farmers and traders

1. Ukraine’s planting is nearly complete, shifting market focus to crop conditions, weather, and the start of harvest.
2. Prices for Ukraine’s new wheat harvest are declining despite rising global grain indicators.
3. Price pressure at DAP port is linked to pre-harvest expectations of increased supply.
4. The global market remains sensitive to yield forecasts in major exporting countries and to energy and fertilizer prices.

Implications for the market: In the near term, Ukrainian producers should closely monitor the relationship between domestic DAP port prices, harvesting progress, and global signals. Local pressure from the upcoming harvest may persist, but the global background remains a factor that traders will consider when forming purchase prices.