Grain exports under pressure: how prolonged port restrictions are reshaping logistics

Prolonged restrictions on maritime exports could put greater pressure on alternative routes for shipping Ukrainian agricultural products. In its baseline scenario, the National Bank of Ukraine expects the blockade of the Greater Odesa ports to continue until mid-2027.

The greatest logistics risk concerns grain: according to the NBU, the capacity of other routes will not be sufficient to ship this year’s harvest before the end of the marketing year.

Alternative routes cannot match seaborne volumes

After agricultural exports fell to 1.8 million tonnes in August, shipments partially recovered in September, reaching 2.7 million tonnes. The NBU attributes this to a shift to alternative routes.

This recovery does not remove capacity constraints. According to the regulator’s forecast, grain accumulation could increase producers’ storage costs, while some products may be lost after spending an extended period in storage.

Grain and vegetable oils face different logistics conditions

The NBU sees more resilient prospects for vegetable oil exports. Shipping these products via alternative routes is more economically viable, in part because of their higher value.

In the baseline scenario, maritime transport could resume in the second half of 2027. According to the NBU, this would allow agricultural exports to increase and partially offset the earlier decline in shipments.

What market participants should consider

• Grain sellers should factor in potential costs for longer-term storage when planning sales timelines.
• Buyers and carriers should assess the availability of alternative routes for specific consignments and agree on logistics terms in advance.
• Logistics calculations for oilseed products may differ from those for grain because of the economics of transport.

What this means for the market: limited route capacity makes storage, shipment timing and transport arrangements important parts of a deal. Sellers and buyers on AgroPost should clearly specify the volume, loading location and logistics terms in their offers.