Ukrainian Agricultural Logistics: Turkish Factor Intensifies Barley Transport Competition

The Ukrainian agricultural logistics market is entering a period when the cargo base for barley may form more cautiously than sellers expected. One of the key external factors is the situation in Turkey, which was previously an important destination for Ukrainian barley.

In light of the new harvest, Turkey may resume barley exports, and its imports in 2026/27 MY, according to USDA estimates, could decrease by 90% — to 150 thousand tons. For Ukrainian traders, elevators, and carriers, this signals the need to plan routes, rates, and shipment deadlines more carefully.

Turkey reduces import demand

In Turkey, the start of the harvest is already putting pressure on domestic prices. In the Konya province, one of the country's key grain regions, the purchase price for barley has dropped to approximately 9,000 Turkish Lira per ton, or about $193/ton.

USDA estimates Turkey's total barley supply in 2026/27 MY at 9.4 million tons. In comparison, in 2024/25 MY, the figure was 9.1 million tons, with the country then exporting a record 1.15 million tons of barley.

Analysts do not expect a new export record for Turkey, but even a partial return to the external market shifts the balance. Additional pressure also comes from regional buyers in MENA, such as Iran, Iraq, Morocco, and Syria, who anticipate better harvests domestically.

What is happening with Ukrainian barley

For Ukraine, it is important that Turkey was previously one of the major buyers of Ukrainian barley. If its imports indeed decrease to the forecasted level, competition for alternative sales channels may intensify.

As of June 23, demand prices for Ukrainian feed barley were estimated at 8,900–10,300 UAH/ton on CPT terms. Port prices ranged from $195 to $208/ton CPT.

The market was pressured by the approaching harvest and weak trading activity. Some buyers hesitated to work with the old crop, waiting for the new grain to arrive.

Logistics effect: fewer impulsive requests, more trading based on rates

For carriers, this means that demand for trucks, rail shipments, and port logistics may be uneven. Grain owners will try not to overpay for transportation if export margins are insufficient.

During the start of the new harvest, logistics often becomes a negotiation field: sellers focus on CPT port rates, buyers on the final export economics, and carriers on route load factors and turnover speed.

For AgroPost participants, the practical takeaway is simple: transportation offers should clearly specify the destination, transport type, minimum batch size, readiness to work with elevators or farms, and the current rate relevance.

Key conclusions for sellers and carriers

• Barley sellers should consider logistics in multiple scenarios: CPT port, domestic buyer, elevator storage.
• Carriers should quickly update rates, as weaker demand for the old crop may increase competition for shipments.
• Elevators need to communicate the availability of accepting and dispatching the new harvest to avoid losing batches due to delays.
• Buyers should check not only the grain price but also the actual cost of delivery to the port or end consumer.

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What this means for the market

Ukrainian barley logistics is entering a phase where deal speed and delivery accuracy will be decisive. If Turkish demand remains weak, sellers will seek alternative sales channels, and carriers will look for stable routes with predictable loadings. On AgroPost, this increases the value of current listings with clear transportation conditions and real market price references.