Ukrainian Agricultural Logistics: How the New Wheat Season Changes Transportation Demand

The Ukrainian grain transportation market is entering a new season with mixed signals. On one hand, at the end of the 2025/26 MY, wheat exports were active and helped reduce remaining stocks. On the other hand, major buyers may be less aggressive in procurement at the start of the 2026/27 MY.

For agricultural producers, traders, elevators, and carriers, this issue is not only about grain prices. Changes in export pace directly impact demand for road transport, rail shipments, port logistics, and temporary storage needs.

Wheat exports: increased dependence on three main destinations

In 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported nearly 14 million tons of wheat. A notable feature of the season was high activity at the end of the marketing year: in the last quarter, 4 million tons were shipped, accounting for 29% of the seasonal export.

By comparison, in 2024/25 MY, wheat exports totaled 15.6 million tons, but only 2.6 million tons, or 16% of the total, were shipped in the final quarter. This indicates that logistical loads may shift in time rather than be evenly distributed throughout the season.

At the same time, export concentration among three major buyers increased. Egypt's share rose from 14% to 27%, Algeria's from 12% to 20%, and Indonesia's from 10% to 15%. Together, these countries accounted for 62% of Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2025/26 MY, compared to 36% the previous year.

What might change for transportation in 2026/27 MY

Analysts expect that Egypt, Algeria, and Indonesia may reduce their demand for Ukrainian wheat due to high initial stocks. An additional factor for Egypt and Algeria is the increase in their own production.

For logistics, this means the season's start could be less predictable. If procurement by large importers is slower, some grain will remain longer on the domestic market, and transportation demand may shift from rapid exports to storage, re-routing, and seeking alternative sales channels.

According to ASAP Agri estimates, carry-over stocks of wheat at the end of 2025/26 MY amounted to 2.3 million tons. This is approximately 1 million tons more than the previous year and could exert price pressure at the start of the new season when new harvest grain enters the market.

Key conclusions for sellers, buyers, and carriers

• Do not rely solely on last year's export schedule. High shipments in the final quarter of 2025/26 MY showed that logistics demand can sharply concentrate in specific periods.
• Dependence on a few importers increases risks. If one major buyer reduces activity, it quickly affects shipment pace and transportation needs.
• Elevator capacity and storage periods become more important. Higher carry-over stocks may increase competition for quality storage and flexible shipment conditions.
• For AgroPost listings, clearly specify logistics conditions. Grain sellers should indicate basis, availability of road or rail shipments, approximate batch volumes, and readiness for quick re-routing.

Internal logistics: processing shapes local freight flows

Alongside export logistics, projects are developing in Ukraine that could create additional demand for domestic agricultural transportation. For example, the first phase of the Feednova Center plant in Cherkasy region is planned to operate with raw materials from meat processing plants within a 300 km radius.

The launch of this first phase is scheduled for spring 2027. For the transport market, this format means not a one-time export cargo but regular regional transportation of raw materials and finished products over relatively short distances.

What this means for the market: Ukrainian agricultural logistics in 2026/27 MY will require greater flexibility. Wheat exports may remain dependent on decisions of several importers, while internal processing will gradually create new local routes. For AgroPost participants, this is an incentive to specify delivery conditions more precisely, update proposals faster, and coordinate with carriers in advance regarding available shipment windows.