Corn transitions to new harvest: what’s happening with prices, exports, and elevator logistics

The Ukrainian grain market in early July is gradually shifting its focus from remaining old crop stocks to contracts for the new corn harvest. For sellers, this means increased competition for buyers, while buyers benefit from a wider range of proposals for autumn-winter deliveries.

The key signal of the week was the decline in the indicative price of old corn on a CPT Odessa basis. Meanwhile, prices for the new harvest remain relatively stable, forming a separate sales strategy for farmers, traders, and elevators.

Old corn prices are falling, new harvest remains steady

According to market data, the indicative price of old crop corn on a CPT Odessa basis decreased by $5/ton over the week — to $212/ton. The main factor for sellers is the reduced activity of exporters in purchasing old grain.

For the new harvest, the market appears more stable for now. Indicative prices for delivery in November-December are quoted at $205–206/ton CPT port and €185–188/ton FCA Chop.

The expanding supply of the new harvest is tempering price expectations for the second half of the year. Therefore, sellers should carefully compare terms of basis, delivery schedules, and quality requirements rather than focusing solely on the nominal price per ton.

Corn exports remain active, but buyers are more selective

In the first 25 days of June, Ukraine exported 1.62 million tons of corn. Major destinations included Turkey, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.

This confirms that external demand for Ukrainian corn persists. However, the transition to the new harvest is changing the negotiation stance: buyers are increasingly focusing on forward contracts, shipment schedules, and logistical reliability.

In practice, this increases the importance of transparent offers on marketplaces: volume, basis, moisture content, storage location, readiness for shipment, and the ability to quickly process documents.

Elevators and logistics remain critical for margins

A notable seasonal indicator is the results of a major grain operator. According to their report, for the 2025/26 MY, the Agroprosperis group has entered the top five grain exporters in Ukraine.

The group's trading division accumulated 1.6 million tons of grain, with over 2 million tons transported, and elevators handled and shipped 1.3 million tons. These figures demonstrate that success in the market depends not only on having grain but also on the ability to quickly assemble batches, maintain quality, and deliver to export channels.

For mid-sized and small sellers, this serves as an important benchmark: elevator infrastructure, access to transportation, and precise shipment planning can influence final prices no less than market dynamics.

Key takeaways for AgroPost participants

• For sellers of old corn: it is advisable to clarify current demand promptly, as traders are gradually shifting focus to the new harvest.
• For sellers of the new harvest: it makes sense to prepare proposals with clear delivery timelines for November-December and well-defined basis.
• For buyers: compare not only prices but also logistics, batch availability, elevator options, and shipment conditions.
• For elevators: communicate throughput capacity, acceptance schedules, and the ability for prompt shipments.

What this means for the market: Ukraine’s corn is entering a period of reassessment between old and new harvests. For AgroPost, this is a time for more active updates: sellers need to demonstrate real readiness of batches for sale, and buyers should quickly secure quality volumes with acceptable logistics.